ECONOMIC INDICATORS – THE LATEST UPDATES

Boating News Net — Monthly Economic Report, November 2011

BOATING NEWS NET is a monthly economic report produced by NMMA, which features industry and general economic indicators that impact your business.

Some of the key highlights from the report include:

The GDP increased 2.5% in the third quarter (according to the first estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis), primarily reflecting upturns in consumer spending on healthcare, housing, utilities, as well as industrial equipment investments.

CEO confidence continued to decline in the third quarter to a 2.5-year low of 42. In assessing their own industries, a significantly smaller segment (19%) of CEOs says conditions have improved, compared to 40% the prior quarter. About the same proportion (22-23%) of CEOs reported capital spending increases as those reporting spending cuts directly related to sales volume. Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Research Center, anticipates low measures of CEO confidence through early 2012. (Source: Conference Board)

The unemployment rate was unchanged in September at 9.1% with 103,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs continued to grow, adding 137,000 jobs to payrolls in September. Manufacturing employment has been relatively flat for the past two months.  (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Retail sales increased 1.1% in September, the largest gain in seven months, totaling $396 billion. Compared to a year ago, sales were up 8%. Excluding auto, total retail sales gained 0.6%.  (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

The Purchasing Managers Index slowed to 50.8 in October. Growth in production slowed, while backlog of orders continued to shrink. A PMI greater than 50 indicates the economy is generally expanding. (Source: Institute for Supply Management)

Sales of existing single family homes ebbed 4% in September to 4.3 million. New home sales rebounded to 313,000 in September, making up for four consecutive months of decline. Housing starts jumped 15% to a near 1.5-year high of 658,000 in September. (Source: National Association of Realtors)

Light vehicle sales totaled 1.1 million in September, up 7% from a year ago on a rolling 12-month basis. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the annualized light vehicles sales totaled 13.1 million. Some analysts attribute the gain to pent-up demand to replace aging cars and expect sales to ebb through year’s end. (Source: Autodata Corp.)

Advance data indicates that through July, wholesale shipments of traditional powerboats were up 9.3% from a year ago, corresponding dollars were up 20%. (Source: NMMA MSR) New powerboat registrations were down 7% on a rolling 12-month basis through June, compared to a year ago. Advance estimates indicate sales will be up 3.5% on a rolling 12-month basis through September. Source: NMMA New Powerboat Registrations Report) Recreational boat and marine engine export volumes were up 3% in the second quarter of 2011, while dollars were down 4% from a year ago. Corresponding import volumes were up 9%; dollars were up 6%.  (Source: NMMA Export/Import Abstract)

Other Top Economic News:

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HITS TWO-YEAR LOW

Reprinted from Trade Only on October 25, 2011

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in October after a slight improvement the previous month.

The index now stands at 39.8, down from 46.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month.

“Consumer confidence is now back to levels last seen during the 2008-2009 recession. Consumer expectations, which had improved in September, gave back all of the gain and then some, as concerns about business conditions, the labor market and income prospects increased,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

October’s index was the lowest since March 2009.

“Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions did not fare any better,” Franco added. “The Present Situation Index posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline, as pessimism about the current economic environment continues to grow.”

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions deteriorated further in October. Those who said business conditions are “bad” increased to 43.7 percent from 40.5 percent, and those who said business conditions are “good” decreased to 11 percent from 12.1 percent. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also less favorable. Those who said jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 3.4 percent from 5.6 percent. However, those who said jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 47.1 percent from 49.4 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook, which had improved last month, dropped in October. Those who expect business conditions to improve during the next six months decreased to 9.1 percent from 11.8 percent, and those who expect business conditions to worsen edged down to 21.5 percent from 21.9 percent.

CONGRESS PASSES 3 FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS, EXPORT OPS NOW AVAILABLE FOR BOATING BUSINESSES

Both the United States Senate and the House of Representatives voted on Oct. 12 to approve free trade agreements with Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. The National Association of Manufacturers estimates that these agreements will add $13 billion per year to U.S. exports. The move follows an NMMA action alert, through which members rallied to contact their Congressional representation to urge the passage of this important legislation.

To learn how these new Free Trade Agreements will benefit your business, access a new Tariff Tool by clicking here.

For more information please contact Jim Currie at 202-737-9760 or jcurrie@nmma.org.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 9 PERCENT IN OCTOBER

Posted Trade Only Today, 11/4/2011

The unemployment rate inched down slightly to 9 percent in October as 80,000 new jobs were added, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Employment in the private sector rose, with modest job growth continuing in professional and businesses services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to trend downward.

Both the number of unemployed people (13.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9 percent) changed little during the month. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 9 to 9.2 percent since April.

In October, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 366,000, to 5.9 million, or 42.4 percent of total unemployment.

Last month, 2.6 million people were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. These people were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.

They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the four weeks preceding the survey.

Click here for the full report.

ECONOMY GROWS 2.5 PERCENT IN 3Q

Posted Trade Only on 27 October 2011

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5 percent clip in the third quarter of 2011, buoying hopes that the country is holding off another recession.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the July-September quarter.

The economy grew at a 1.3 percent pace in the April-June quarter and showed 0.9 percent growth for the first six months of the year.

Consumer spending grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter.

Click here for the full report.

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